惠譽料未來數周內地鋼價升勢放緩 但鐵礦石漲價環保新規支持鋼價
評級機構惠譽發表報告,預期隨著夏季來臨,未來幾周中國鋼價漲勢將放緩,因為夏季屬施工淡季,下游需求通常較少。但高昂的鐵礦石價格和環保限產新規或將令鋼價保持高位。惠譽預期,配備環保合規設施且面對減產更具韌性的大型鋼鐵生產商將從中受益。
中國鋼價自年初開始飆升,五一勞動節過後下游生產商開始補充鋼鐵庫存,鋼價漲勢更勁。舉例而言,每噸螺紋鋼的價格猛漲至6,000元人民幣(下同)(含增值稅),較4月末增長逾600元。這是多種因素綜合作用的結果,包括建築行業的強勁需求、電動汽車產量增加、鋼企限產政策實施以及鐵礦石價格上漲等。鐵礦石佔鋼鐵生產成本的近一半;截至2021年5月12日的一年內,鐵礦石價格上漲逾40%,而同時期鋼鐵產品的成本增加20%。
河北省發布的鋼企限產新規亦對鋼價上漲產生重大助推作用。唐山市是河北省的主要鋼鐵製造中心,佔全國粗鋼總產量的近15%。為減少碳排放,唐山市執行了限產政策,全年限產30%至50%。國際鋼鐵價格指數(CRU)顯示,此舉或將令本年度鋼鐵產量減少逾3,000萬噸,這符合中國政府自2020年10.5億噸的歷史高位逐年降低粗鋼產量的要求。
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