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惠誉料未来数周内地钢价升势放缓 但铁矿石涨价环保新规支持钢价
阿思达克 05-17 16:57
评级机构惠誉发表报告,预期随着夏季来临,未来几周中国钢价涨势将放缓,因为夏季属施工淡季,下游需求通常较少。但高昂的铁矿石价格和环保限产新规或将令钢价保持高位。惠誉预期,配备环保合规设施且面对减产更具韧性的大型钢铁生产商将从中受益。

中国钢价自年初开始飙升,五一劳动节过後下游生产商开始补充钢铁库存,钢价涨势更劲。举例而言,每吨螺纹钢的价格猛涨至6,000元人民币(下同)(含增值税),较4月末增长逾600元。这是多种因素综合作用的结果,包括建筑行业的强劲需求、电动汽车产量增加、钢企限产政策实施以及铁矿石价格上涨等。铁矿石占钢铁生产成本的近一半;截至2021年5月12日的一年内,铁矿石价格上涨逾40%,而同时期钢铁产品的成本增加20%。

河北省发布的钢企限产新规亦对钢价上涨产生重大助推作用。唐山市是河北省的主要钢铁制造中心,占全国粗钢总产量的近15%。为减少碳排放,唐山市执行了限产政策,全年限产30%至50%。国际钢铁价格指数(CRU)显示,此举或将令本年度钢铁产量减少逾3,000万吨,这符合中国政府自2020年10.5亿吨的历史高位逐年降低粗钢产量的要求。

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