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大和:重申現代牧業(1117.HK)買入評級 目標價3.2港元
格隆匯 05-14 13:13

大和發表研究報吿指,現代牧業(1117.HK)管理層透露,截至今年前四個月,原奶平均售價按年上漲超過10%,超出管理層對全年平均售價上漲6%的預測,及同期單位飼料成本增加的預期。該行預期現代牧業的經營現金流量及純利於2021-23年將有顯著改善,同時原奶價格將於2021年繼續回升,重申其買入評級,目標價3.2港元。

報吿指,管理層預測中國牛羣規模不會於短期內迅速擴大,因目前進口奶牛的頭均售價超過2萬元人民幣,並且還需額外飼料成本2萬元人民幣以上,才能飼養成為奶牛,因此按目前的飼養成本並不符合經濟效益。管理層估計,由於持續淘汰以維持高單產,中國的牛羣規模最多以5-6%的增速增長。對於現代牧業,管理層預期2021年的銷量將因單產提升而增加3%至5%,並隨著牛羣規模擴大而加速,實現按年雙位數增長,料於2020-25年將達到高個位數複合年增長率。

大和又認為,飼料價格仍然波動,玉米價格最近已於今年4月由每噸3000元,調整至每噸2700元人民幣,而現代牧業已藉此機會囤積所需的部分玉米。管理層認為年初至今的單位飼料成本與公司先前預期相符。

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