《季绩前瞻》券商料友邦(01299.HK)首季新业务价值升近17% 受惠内地业务强劲(更新)
花旗、高盛、瑞信等券商料友邦保险(01299.HK)将於本周五(14日)公布今年首季业绩，券商料虽然新冠疫情在亚太区内持续蔓延，但由於中国内地已较早地控制新冠疫情，受惠於内地业务表现，本网综合8间券商料友邦(01299.HK)2021年首季新业务价值(实质汇率计(AER))介乎9.672亿美元至10.26亿美元，较2020年首季8.41亿美元，按年增15%至22%；中位数为9.8亿美元，按年升16.5%。
天风证券上周报告指，友邦旗下内地业务新业务价值，於去年已占集团总体的35%，指其在内地的经营区域拓展和差异化的发展策略将是投资者关注点，特别是友邦人寿在内地其他省份的申请能否获批、及香港与内地通关进展等；大和料友邦旗下内地业务已成集团季内新业务价值最大贡献地区，料天津和河北省石家庄分部於今年起可提供贡献，并关注其在内地保险代理人数指引。
【料内地业务强 关注拓展指引】
花旗估计友邦今年首季新业务价值预测按实质汇率计可按年升16%，若按固定汇率(CER)计则按年增长10%，主要受益於内地业务所推动，该行料友邦中国季新业务价值按年增长35%，但估计香港业务首季新业务价值按年下滑16%，料泰国业务首季新业务价值按年下跌4%。
中金指，基於友邦此前已公布今年首两个月新业务价值按年增速15%，因此市场已有预期，该行估计友邦2021年首季新业务价值按实质汇率计可按年升18%，若按固定汇率计则按年增长13%，主要受益於中国内地业务强劲增长，因受益於新旧重疾产品的切换，值得注意是2020年月份的「分转子」後额外的预提税，将对友邦新业务价值产生额外5%的负面影响。
该行指由於香港首季的内地游客仍非常少，料友邦旗下香港业务的本地客户逐渐恢复；至於其他市场方面，即使基数不低，料相当部份的市场仍可实现正增长，如今年首两个月友邦泰国新单按年实现快速增长。
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本网综合8间券商料友邦(01299.HK)2021年首季新业务价值(实质汇率计(AER))介乎9.672亿美元至10.26亿美元，较2020年首季8.41亿美元，按年增15%至22%；中位数为9.8亿美元，按年升16.5%。
券商│今年首季新业务价值预测(美元)│按年变幅
摩根士丹利│10.26亿美元│+22%
瑞信│10.08亿美元│+19.9%
中金│9.92亿美元│+18%
银河-联昌证券│9.84亿美元│+17%
摩根大通│9.76亿美元│+16%
花旗│9.76亿美元│+16%
高盛│9.74亿美元│+15.8%
大和│9.672亿美元│+15%
按友邦2020年首季新业务价值8.41亿美元(实质汇率跌28%)计
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