摩根大通:料香港今年樓價將升5-10% 繼續偏好新地(0016.HK)等股
摩根大通發表報吿指,預計香港今年步入通脹週期,加上全球及香港資金充裕,資產價格將會帶來上升。該行又指,今年至今香港樓價已上升3.9%,距離2019年曆史高位仍有4%,料全年樓價將會上升5-10%。由於經濟復甦脆弱,認為政府不太可能對資產價格上漲採取嚴厲措施。
報吿又指,房地產在香港被認為是對沖通脹的最佳方法之一,而住宅價格走勢往往與香港和中國的CPI高度相關。該行又指,以美國10年期債券收益率及中原城市領先指數比較,兩者相關性正面,即樓價通常在利率上升期間上升,需求增加將抵消融資成本增加的影響。
該行又指,對地產股看法正面的呼籲今年一直進行,相信貨幣供應量和房地產價格增長預期,將加速推動股價進一步上漲,繼續偏好新地(0016.HK)及信置(0083.HK),預計兩間公司今年項目供應強勁。
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