惠誉指恒大集团(03333.HK)去杠杆计划现实可行 但存短期债务风险
评级机构惠誉表示,恒大集团(03333.HK)计划降低对短期债务的倚重可能比去杠杆更有挑战性。虽然公司销售表现理想和土地储备充裕,形成了可大幅削减其总债务的现实路径,但高昂的长期债务融资成本可能令缩减短债比例难度增加。
在2020年底,恒大集团中了全部三道红线。恒大指会争取在未来两年内达到有关政策要求。除压降总债务规模以外,亦计划降低对短期债务的依赖度。去年末该公司现金与短债比率为0.5倍,不符合红线中现金短债比应小於1.0倍的监管规定。
惠誉认为,鉴於恒大已表明即使在利润率收窄情况下亦有意放量销售,加之公司充裕的土地储备令其能够放缓拿地,所以公司压降总债务规模的计划现实可行。去年集团合同销售额增加20%至7,230亿元人民币,维持90%的销售回款率,加上至去年末有2.31亿平方米的土地储备,足以支持其未来三年的开发需求。而集团含有息债务和贸易应付账款的负债,在攀升多年後於2020年趋稳。若能坚定实施放量销售策略或会显着降低其负债。
去年末恒大7,170亿元人民币债务中,近47%为短期内到期的债务。此外,较近批次的长期债务,即於2022年到期债务,另占总债务的23%。该现像源於境内债务资本市场长期债务年期较短,且公司高度依赖信托贷款。而资本市场和银行渠道以外的借款,主要为信托贷款,占总债务的40%。
惠誉表示,恒大集团可赴境外资本市场获取较长年期融资,但融资成本似乎令其却步。集团2024至2025年到期债券的收益率为15%至16%,且自去年1月以来未发行任何资本市场债务。年期较长的债务可降低流动性风险,但对於为短库存周期筹集资金的房企而言吸引力并不大,除非较长年期债务的发行价较低。惠誉认为,鉴於其无抵押且受制於市场流动性和定价的融资特点,资本市场和信托贷款到期时无法展期的风险较高。
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