惠譽指恆大集團(03333.HK)去杠杆計劃現實可行 但存短期債務風險
評級機構惠譽表示,恆大集團(03333.HK)計劃降低對短期債務的倚重可能比去杠杆更有挑戰性。雖然公司銷售表現理想和土地儲備充裕,形成了可大幅削減其總債務的現實路徑,但高昂的長期債務融資成本可能令縮減短債比例難度增加。
在2020年底,恆大集團中了全部三道紅線。恆大指會爭取在未來兩年內達到有關政策要求。除壓降總債務規模以外,亦計劃降低對短期債務的依賴度。去年末該公司現金與短債比率為0.5倍,不符合紅線中現金短債比應小於1.0倍的監管規定。
惠譽認為,鑒於恆大已表明即使在利潤率收窄情況下亦有意放量銷售,加之公司充裕的土地儲備令其能夠放緩拿地,所以公司壓降總債務規模的計劃現實可行。去年集團合同銷售額增加20%至7,230億元人民幣,維持90%的銷售回款率,加上至去年末有2.31億平方米的土地儲備,足以支持其未來三年的開發需求。而集團含有息債務和貿易應付賬款的負債,在攀升多年後於2020年趨穩。若能堅定實施放量銷售策略或會顯著降低其負債。
去年末恆大7,170億元人民幣債務中,近47%為短期內到期的債務。此外,較近批次的長期債務,即於2022年到期債務,另佔總債務的23%。該現像源於境內債務資本市場長期債務年期較短,且公司高度依賴信托貸款。而資本市場和銀行渠道以外的借款,主要為信托貸款,佔總債務的40%。
惠譽表示,恆大集團可赴境外資本市場獲取較長年期融資,但融資成本似乎令其卻步。集團2024至2025年到期債券的收益率為15%至16%,且自去年1月以來未發行任何資本市場債務。年期較長的債務可降低流動性風險,但對於為短庫存周期籌集資金的房企而言吸引力並不大,除非較長年期債務的發行價較低。惠譽認為,鑒於其無抵押且受制於市場流動性和定價的融資特點,資本市場和信托貸款到期時無法展期的風險較高。
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