《大行報告》摩通升中鋁、馬鋼及鞍鋼H股目標價 4月鋁材單位每噸毛利創新高
摩根大通發表研究報告,指在過去供給側改革,鋁是內地政府核心專注板塊以解決供應過剩問題。在「供給側改革2.0」至今,供應管理舉措大都集中於鋼。該行相信碳中和政策將加大對行業壓力加快轉型至氫能製鋁生產,致未來產出增長放緩,支持其高企行業毛利率與鋼相若。該行上調中鋁(02600.HK)、馬鋼(00323.HK)及鞍鋼(00347.HK)H股目標價,中鋁由4.5元升至5.5元,馬鋼由3.7元升至4.9元,鞍鋼由5.6元升至7.5元;評級均為「增持」。
報告稱,內地4月鋁材單位毛利升至約每噸4,400元人民幣的歷史高位。考慮去年下半年鋁庫存低企,今年春節補貨周期後進一步下跌,自去年末季起終端需求增速較產出增速快。短期而言,該行看不到內地鋁材產出有大幅增加的跡象。
摩通解釋,與鋼比較,鋁帶來的內地二氧化碳排放相對較小。去年內地鋁行業排放4.5億噸二氧化碳,佔內地整體二氧化碳排放約5%,少於水泥及鋼約15%至20%;較小碳排放意味鋁是經濟上可行的綠色替代。現時能源生產佔鋁行業絕大部分碳排放,及生產成本約30%;氫能製鋁佔現時內地鋁生產約10%,所產生的碳排放相對大幅減少。該行稱,以煤電生產的每噸鋁釋放13噸二氧化碳,而氫能製鋁則每噸鋁釋放1.8噸二氧化碳。
報告稱,碳中和政策將致鋁產能增長放緩,料碳中和政策將限制鋼產能於2021/2022年水平,由於轉型向氫能製鋁,鋁生產料續增,但增幅放慢。該行料至年底鋁產量按年升幅將由現時約10%放緩至少於5%。
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