渣打上調本港今年經濟增長預測至6.9% 高失業率或「拖後腿」
渣打香港大中華區高級經濟師劉健恆發表報告,指考慮今年開局強勁,上調本港今年經濟增長預測由3.5%升至6.9%,料今年餘下時間續溫和復甦。該行料上半年增長7.7%,下半年增長放緩至6.2%,源於基數效應正常化及復甦擴展至更本地導向行業。該行最新估算與經濟屆今年底回復至疫前水平的預測相符。
報告稱,本港首季實際GDP按年轉升7.8%,遠勝預期,受惠基數效應及出口強勁。經季調後,本港首季GDP按季增5.3%,屬2003年沙士後第二高,反映外部帶來強勁提振。
展望未來,淨外部出口帶來的強勁貢獻料難以持續,不過,假設本地疫苗接種加快,該行認為本地消費、投資及旅遊業可逐步復甦。這或可促成潛在放寬出入境限制。該行下調HIBOR預測,以反映3月底以來的跌勢,料續支持香港經濟,特別是房地產行業。不過,高失業率仍是重大憂慮為經濟「拖後腿」,料未來一至兩季仍維持7%附近水平。
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