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標普料本港今年樓價升0%至5% 零售租金優惠或「縮水」 辦公室板塊料跑輸
阿思達克 05-05 11:46
評級機構標普全球評級發表報告,指香港今年開始走出疫情陰霾,保持韌性的樓價料可再升5%。商場人流改善料有利業主,惟辦公室板塊料落後大市。

該行信貸分析師Edward Chan稱,辦公室落後大市部分由於居家工作安排帶來的改變,辦公室業主在未來一至兩年料向新租客及續租租客提供更佳條件。供應亦是一問題,所有地區辦公室佔用率及續租租金持續承壓。中環空置率較2018年低位升逾三倍。

報告指未來12至18個月零售業主在續租時料仍有需要降租,在入境旅遊尚未重啟時捕捉本地低端消費需求。不過,租金優惠或較去年「縮水」,主因疫情放緩下零售銷售局部復甦,及本港正推廣疫苗接種。

該行料本港今年樓價升0%至5%,主因需求強勁,土地及房屋供應短缺,以及持續低息環境。而且本港失業率或已見頂,本港首季實際GDP按年轉升7.8%屬強勁。過去二十年,本港樓價在失業率見頂時通常已見底。這將支持發展商物業銷售利潤。在積壓需求下今年住宅交投料按年上升,支持發展商項目去化率。首季交投已按年升78%。在結構性供應短缺下,未來兩至三年樓價料保持韌性。

標普信貸分析師Aeon Liang表示,所覆蓋發展商信貸狀況大致穩定,受強勁資產負債表、穩固市場定位,以及樓市保持韌性所支持。而持續人口淨流出帶來的需求負面影響或動搖該行看法。此外,有較大辦公室業務佔比,特別是非核心區的辦公室業主將面對持續租金壓力。

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