渣打上调本港今年经济增长预测至6.9% 高失业率或「拖後腿」
渣打香港大中华区高级经济师刘健恒发表报告,指考虑今年开局强劲,上调本港今年经济增长预测由3.5%升至6.9%,料今年余下时间续温和复苏。该行料上半年增长7.7%,下半年增长放缓至6.2%,源於基数效应正常化及复苏扩展至更本地导向行业。该行最新估算与经济届今年底回复至疫前水平的预测相符。
报告称,本港首季实际GDP按年转升7.8%,远胜预期,受惠基数效应及出口强劲。经季调後,本港首季GDP按季增5.3%,属2003年沙士後第二高,反映外部带来强劲提振。
展望未来,净外部出口带来的强劲贡献料难以持续,不过,假设本地疫苗接种加快,该行认为本地消费、投资及旅游业可逐步复苏。这或可促成潜在放宽出入境限制。该行下调HIBOR预测,以反映3月底以来的跌势,料续支持香港经济,特别是房地产行业。不过,高失业率仍是重大忧虑为经济「拖後腿」,料未来一至两季仍维持7%附近水平。
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