《大行報告》摩通:是時候再審視中石油(00857.HK) 料進口天然氣業務可改善
摩根大通近日發表報告表示,相信投資者是時候再審視中石油(00857.HK),指中石油管理層於分析員電話會議進一步澄清今年首季度天然氣、管道業務情況,確認該行認為中石油旗下管道資產的損失影響並非市場原預期般壞。該行相信中石油早前股價亦反應正面,反映了投資者對公司天然氣利潤業務改善的信心不斷增強。
該行指,重申對中石油「增持」評級及目標價3.6元,此按綜合方式作估值。
摩通指,中石油經過市場對其估值的調整,料中石油目前企業價值僅為1.3萬億人民幣,對比寧德時代(300750.SZ)企業價值為8,500億人民幣,而中石油於石油周期的底部即2020年仍錄淨利潤190億人民幣(對比寧德時代淨利潤60億人民幣)。
該行預計,假設國際油價每桶僅60美元,中石油盈利至2025年將增至900億人民幣以上)(料寧德時代其時盈利190億人民幣)。收益改善的很大一部分,料來自天然氣進口損失的減少,在2019年天然氣進口損失產生經營虧損307億元人民幣,但該行預計中石油至2021年及2022年該分項可達收支平衡。
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