植耀辉: 美股个别发展 港股5月开局不利
阿思达克 05-04 10:44
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，美股隔晚(3日)个别发展，憧憬当地社交措施逐步放松限制，经济亦有望重启，道指及标普表现较佳，反观科技股如Tesla(TSLA.US)表现则较失色。最终道指上升238点或0.7%，收报34,113点，标普500指数上升0.27%，收报4,192点，纳指则下跌67点或0.48%，收报13,895点。
至於港股方面，恒指踏入5月份首个交易日即下跌367点，虽然跌幅不算特别大，但却跌破下方其中一个重要支持100天线(28,548点)。如短期未能重上该水平，大市下行趋势将进一步确认，後市或有会出现较深调整。当然，大市上周四亦出向上「假突破」，是否向下仍要再多一、两日观察，只是大市本身似乎亦未见有太多利好消息，加上北水本周四才回归，相信大市交投仍会较为淡静。而且正如上日提到，自2000年统计至今5月跌市机会亦相当高，故投资者实在不宜现水平过於进取。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，并未持有相关股份)
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恒指是否正式失守100天线将成关键
耀才研究部称，隔晚(3日)美股三大指数个别发展，市场续憧憬经济复苏，带动道指及标指上升，但科技股见回吐，拖累纳指下跌。港股ADR普遍靠稳，旧经济股表现较为理想，「黑期」今早升逾130点至28,400点水平之上，料恒指今早有望裂口高开略作反弹。本港今年首季本地生产总值(GDP)预估数字按年上升7.8%，远较市场预期的3.7%为高，七个季度来首次扩张，预料本地股今日(4日)有望领涨大市，加上近来本港楼市有趋靠迹象，可留意一众旧经济股能否带动大市回稳。
恒指昨日再度跌穿100天线之支持，但整体而言，恒指仅横行於保力加通道之内，此通道暂在28,429点至29,268点之间，恒指能否於短期内维持於此通道之间将成关键。维持较早前看法，如恒指不能於短期後市重上100天线，当100天线正式失守，则宜慎防後市将会继续调整。反之，如指数再度重上100天线，反覆待变之格局或将会维持。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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