《大行报告》中金升中远海控(01919.HK)目标价至20.25元 估计运价有望续涨
中金发表报告表示由於近期运价超预期,认为趋势有望持续,上调对中远海控(01919.HK)2021年及2022年盈利预测21%、12%至490亿人民币和227亿人民币。目前H股相当於2021年市盈率3.1倍,对中远海控H股维持「跑赢行业」评级,目标价上调21%至20.25元,对应今明两年预测市盈率各4.4倍及9倍。
该行指,中远海控公布今年首季业绩,完成收入648亿人民币,按年增长80%,录纯利154.5亿人民币,较去年同期的2.9亿人民币大幅增长,每股收益1.25元人民币,与此前预告一致。经营活动净现金流270亿人民币,较上年同期的15.3亿元人民币大幅增加,公司资产负债率较上年底降低4.3个百分点。公司首季度航运业务货运量完成678万标准箱,按年增长21%,远高於公司运力增速4%,船舶利用率大幅提高;据公司公告,集运业务EBIT利润率为30%,高於全球第一大公司马士基(为25%,但包括集运、码头和物流等)。
该行估计,运价有望继续上涨,中远海控第二季盈利确定性高。如该行前期提示,苏伊士运河堵塞事件对运力造成扰动,需求持续旺盛情况下使得运力和集装箱再度偏紧,SCFI和CCFI从4月开始止跌回升。考虑到运价体现到财报上的滞後性和合同运价逐步更新调整,该行认为第二季的整体运价也将维持在高位,盈利的确定性高,甚至有望实现高於首季盈利。
中金称,目前全球集装箱船队在手订单与运力之比从最低点的8.3%回升到了17%,但仍处於历史相对低点。现在下订单造船需等到2023年交付,後续仍需 关注高盈利和现金流的驱动下新船订单是否大量累计。(wl/u) ~
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