《大行報告》中金升中遠海控(01919.HK)目標價至20.25元 估計運價有望續漲
中金發表報告表示由於近期運價超預期,認為趨勢有望持續,上調對中遠海控(01919.HK)2021年及2022年盈利預測21%、12%至490億人民幣和227億人民幣。目前H股相當於2021年市盈率3.1倍,對中遠海控H股維持「跑贏行業」評級,目標價上調21%至20.25元,對應今明兩年預測市盈率各4.4倍及9倍。
該行指,中遠海控公布今年首季業績,完成收入648億人民幣,按年增長80%,錄純利154.5億人民幣,較去年同期的2.9億人民幣大幅增長,每股收益1.25元人民幣,與此前預告一致。經營活動淨現金流270億人民幣,較上年同期的15.3億元人民幣大幅增加,公司資產負債率較上年底降低4.3個百分點。公司首季度航運業務貨運量完成678萬標準箱,按年增長21%,遠高於公司運力增速4%,船舶利用率大幅提高;據公司公告,集運業務EBIT利潤率為30%,高於全球第一大公司馬士基(為25%,但包括集運、碼頭和物流等)。
該行估計,運價有望繼續上漲,中遠海控第二季盈利確定性高。如該行前期提示,蘇伊士運河堵塞事件對運力造成擾動,需求持續旺盛情況下使得運力和集裝箱再度偏緊,SCFI和CCFI從4月開始止跌回升。考慮到運價體現到財報上的滯後性和合同運價逐步更新調整,該行認為第二季的整體運價也將維持在高位,盈利的確定性高,甚至有望實現高於首季盈利。
中金稱,目前全球集裝箱船隊在手訂單與運力之比從最低點的8.3%回升到了17%,但仍處於歷史相對低點。現在下訂單造船需等到2023年交付,後續仍需 關注高盈利和現金流的驅動下新船訂單是否大量累計。(wl/u) ~
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