《大行报告》美银证券调整物管股目标价 降绿城服务(02869.HK)评级至「中性」
美银证券发表的研究报告指,今年以来该行覆盖的物管股平均升三成,认为短期催化剂有限,除非政策上有惊喜以及有重大并购等。该行指出大型物管股现价相当於2022年预测市盈率26.7倍,而中小型物管股现价则相当於2022年预测市盈率14倍,近期上市的公司或受惠获指数纳入,但短期缺正面催化剂。
该行的调查显示,今年首季的面积增长符预期或轻微落後於全年目标,怀疑是否所有物管企业均能满足到其进取的增长目标,主要因为第三方市场扩张规模或较细,不过行业并购的估值相对仍合理。该行的估算较企业未来三至五年的增长目标低约5%,将物管股目标价调整16-21%,以反映部分增长较高,以及受竞争影响并购相关开支较高。
该行将绿城服务(02869.HK)评级降至「中性」,主要考虑其估值及合约面积目标完成进度较慢,首选为碧桂园服务(06098.HK)及雅生活服务(03319.HK),认为碧桂园服务有较强的执行往绩,而雅生活估值则较低,维持中海物业(02669.HK)「跑输大市」评级,认为公司难达到管理层提出的增长目标。
该行追踪的主要物管企业2021年合约面积增长目标均逾50%,据其调查显示,进展大致符预期,不过部分则稍慢於其目标,料仍可透过并购补足。另外世茂服务(00873.HK)虽然跑赢其招标目标,不过首季在并购方面则较平静。
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