植耀辉: 港股五穷月跌多升少
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，港股在4月最後一个交易日急跌近600点，29,000点又再度失守，而且跌势相当全面，成份股中只得5只股份上升，跌幅则以友邦(01299.HK)居首，大跌4.44%，并又再次失守红底股。事实上，单一只友邦，便拖低恒指达130点。另外新经济股亦捱沽，美团(03690.HK)下跌3.62%，阿里巴巴(09988.HK)亦跌2.77%。较令人意外的是内银股，建行(00939.HK)及工行(01398.HK)便分别下跌3.45%及3.62%。
虽然上周五(4月30日)出现急跌，但恒指四月份仍上升346点或1.2%。不过踏入五穷月，港股形势似乎相当严峻。企业季绩未见有太大惊喜，A股虽然偶见造好，但始终未能摆脱3,450点阻力，并持续於该水平反覆上落。另外外围如印度疫情失控，令全球经济复苏路又变得更不明朗等，令港股暂难有条件向上突破。
即使以历史数据分析，恒指近年5月表现亦不见得好。以2010年至2020年为例，恒指只有两年录得升幅，即使稍作推前，惟由2000年至今，录得升幅的次数亦只得六次，反映5月确是跌市机率较高。所以预期恒指将继续於28,500至29,500点上落，惟须注意一旦失守下方支持，则近期之横行闷局将出现突破，有机会出现较大调整。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，持有友邦股份)
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内地假期因素 港股仍将缺乏方向
耀才研究部称，美股上周五(4月30日)出现回吐，企业绩业表现参差，加上科技股沽压较大，纳指跌幅较大，下跌119点或0.85%。至於道指及标普500指数则分别下跌0.54%及0.72%。不过若以4月份表现而言，则标普升幅达5%，道指及纳指亦分别上升2.7%及5.4%。
至於港股方面，大市走势仍见反覆，虽然周四(4月29日)大市出现突破，但周五却又「打回原型」之余，跌幅亦见显着。由於内地假期因素，港股通周四才恢复，相信港股仍将缺乏方向，待「北水」回归後走势始会转趋明朗。另不少蓝筹已陆续公布季绩，在缺乏消息面下，相信交投亦会转淡。
从技术分析角度，恒指4月份呈长方型走势，上方阻力为29,500点，下方支持则为28,500点。上周四虽一度见向上突破，惟周五又再重回该区间，反映大市仍未能摆脱上落市格局。但值得留意，港股走势似有所转弱，故下方支持不容有失，一旦失守意味整个形态将转坏，後市或有机会出现较深度调整。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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