一文了解大行於渣打(02888.HK)公布季绩後最新评级、目标价及观点
渣打(02888.HK)今早股价造好，最新报56元升1.7%。瑞银指渣打首季基本除税前盈利录14.46亿美元，较市场同业原预高出34%，指普通股权一级资本比率14%较原预期低20个基点，会引起投资者关注，因其未来收入要达5-7%增长目标，料渣打需要提升信用风险承担的风险加权数额(RWA)及升资产效益，认为净资本水平将是其中期前景重要因素之一。
【季绩优预期 股价有支持】
渣打昨日(29日)中午收市後公布首季业绩，基本表现除税前溢利按年升18%至14.46亿美元，高於本网综合3间券商预测上限10.71亿美元；基本表现经营收入按年跌9%至39.29亿美元。期内信贷减值2,000万美元，远低於去年同期的9.56亿美元。
集团首季法定表现除税前溢利按年升59%至14.13亿美元，高於本网综合3间券商预测上限10.18亿美元。法定表现纯利按年升1.14倍至10.92亿美元，每股盈利32.6美仙。普通股股东有形权益回报10.6%，按年升5.5个百分点。首季净利息收入按年跌10%，经调整净息差1.22%，按年收窄30点子。普通股权一级资本比率14%，按年升0.6个百分点。渣打称按固定汇率基准计算，预期全年度收入将与去年相若，明年全年度收入可望重返增长率5%至7%的中期指引水平。集团亦预计全年度减值支出将按年大减。
【焦聚收入前景 存不确定性】
摩根大通指，渣打首季度收入高於市场预期约2%，净利息收入按季升3%，受信贷增长及净息差稳定所推动。非净利息收入由财富管理破纪录表现及强劲的金融市场所推动，该行引述管理层指，在强劲信贷增长推动下，管理层预计收入增长在下半年恢复。该行维持给予渣打「增持」评级及目标价60元。
花旗则指，渣打管理层称季度收入超出市场及渣打自身预期，但不足以改变收入预测。渣打称未来收入有多项不确定性，包括美债利润、净息差、与及资本市场相关收益未来季度有不确定。该行认为，渣打管理层的说法或限制市场对渣打收入预测的上调，预期市场将温和上调拨备前经营溢利预测，盈利预期上调则主要由拨备减少推动。该行给予渣打「中性」评级，渣打伦敦股价目标为540便士，折合约58.49港元。
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本网最新综合5间券商对其投资评级及目标价：
券商│投资评级│目标价((港元)
美银证券│买入│66.8元
摩根大通│增持│60元
花旗│中性│58.49元(540便士)
瑞银│中性│55.02元(508便士)
瑞信│跑输大市│48.41元(447便士)
券商│观点
美银证券│首季税前溢利较该行预期高44%，受惠收入及拨备较低
摩根大通│收入复苏受强劲财富管理及信贷增长加快推动
花旗│季绩因轻微信贷损失胜预期，拨备前经营溢利胜预期
瑞银│实质拨备前溢利符预期，拨备推动业绩显着胜预期
瑞信│收入及拨备胜预期
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