一文了解券商於國壽(02628.HK)公布季績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
中國人壽(02628.HK)季績公布後今早表現向好，現升2.3%，報16.04港元。花旗指國壽首季新業務價值雖按年下降13.2%，但仍優於該行原預期下跌20%，顯示管理層加強銀保及集團的銷售渠道，以減輕所面臨的壓力。國壽公布今年首季根據中國企業會計之營業收入為3,734.58億人民幣，按年增長10.6%；淨利潤為285.89億人民幣按年升67.3%，符合公司早前發盈喜指引(估計首季純利將按年增長55%至75%)。每股收益1.01元人民幣。
國壽首季保費收入為3,238.92億人民幣，按年增長5.2%。在去年高基數基礎上，新業務價值按年下降13.2%。退保率為0.38%，按年上升0.1個百分點。公司實現總投資收益651.12億人民幣，按年增長43.3%，總投資收益率為6.44%；淨投資收益達413.95億人民幣，按年增長8.7%，淨投資收益率為4.08%。
【首季盈利符預期 惟新業務價值弱】
高盛發表報告表示，國壽2021年第一季度淨利潤按年增長67%符合預期，鑑於其派息比率相對穩定，表明盈餘和股息預測存在上行風險，指目前國壽提供股息回報5.5厘，估計每股股息有可能進一步上漲，將為股價帶來刺激作用。在銷售前景方面，管理層仍保持謹慎態度，因代理商人數減少，國壽於整個行業面臨挑戰。在去年高基數基礎上，國壽新業務價值按年下降13.2%，並預期今年下半年新業務價值與同業增長差距將會縮小。該行予國壽投資評級「買入」，目標價維持23元不變。
摩根士丹利表示，國壽首季純利年升67%，但新業務價值按年下降13.2%，屬內險股表現最弱的其中一間公司，料其今年表現難延續去年趨勢，維持對其「與大市同步」評級及目標價20元。
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本網最新綜合7間券商其投資評級及目標價：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
花旗│買入│27元
高盛│買入│23元
瑞信│跑贏大市│23元
野村│買入│22.86元
大和│買入│22元
摩根士丹利│與大市同步│20元
瑞銀│買入│18.5元
券商│觀點
花旗│首季純利及新業務價值增長勝預期
高盛│首季純利增長超預期，期待上半年新業務價值增長有所改善
瑞信│管理層變更可能帶來戰略和執行方面不確定性
野村│首季純利增長強勁，但新業務價值按年增長放緩
大和│新業務價值表現放緩
摩根士丹利│首季純利按年增67%符預期，新業務價值增長同業中表現最弱
瑞銀│新業務價值基本符合預期，但新業務銷售面臨競爭壓力
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