一文綜合大行對於港交所(00388.HK)公布季績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
港交所(00388.HK)今早股價造淡，最新報480.6元下滑1.7%。野村指港交所首季盈利低於該行原預期3.8%，主要受營運支出及投資收益所影響，決定下調對其目標價由517.4元降至531.2元，維持「中性」評級。
港交所昨(28日)中午公布首季純利按年升70%至38.4億元創新高，符合本網綜合5間券商預測中位數的38.2億元。每股盈利3.03元。EBITDA按年增長61%至48.09億元。季內收入及其他收益按年增長49%至59.56億元創新高，高於本網早前綜合4間券商預測上限58.18億元。
港交所代理集團行政總裁戴志堅表示，股票印花稅上調後對交投影響難料，仍要觀察對市場實際影響。他亦指從交易所角度來看，現時已是合適時間推出MSCI中國A股指數期貨，但現時仍待監管機構批准，交易所將向當局就風險監控措施及產品對市場影響等作分析，以爭取相關產品可盡快推出。
【季績符預期 】
瑞銀表示，港交所首季業績優於管理層指引，雖然就A股指數期貨及第二上市公司納入港股通未有最新進展，但相信管理層仍對中國長期增長相關機會持建設性態度，並相信中國「十四五」規劃指出長期支持香港作為離岸金融及風險管理中心，為港交所衍生產品及ESG業務帶來機會。債券南向通亦為投資者關注重點。該行下調對港交所稅後溢利預測，主要基於投資收入預測調整，目標價由615元降至604元，維持「買入」評級。
高盛則指，過去數月發現證據，顯示本港股市成交造頂。股市成交為港交所最大盈利動力，但近月成交已接連按月下跌。該行認為短期港股成交受壓，但尚未於市場反應。該行修訂對港交所今年每股盈利預測至0%至2%增長，明年及後年預測較市場低一至兩成。該行續予港交所「沽售」評級及目標價400元。
傑富瑞則關注新股上市未來或少於預期。該行指港交所縱使持續受惠中國新經濟企業上市及第二上市，但上市公司數目及估值均低於預期。中國亦已針收緊對互聯網業監管。隨著螞蟻撤回上市計劃，字節跳動亦表明無上市計劃。該行維持港交所「持有」評級，目標價僅360.04元。
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本網最新綜合9間券商對其投資評級及目標價，2間券商下調目標價：
券商│投資評級│目標價
中金公司│跑贏行業│611元
瑞銀│買入│615元-> 604元
瑞信│跑贏大市│590元
花旗│買入│570元
摩根大通│增持│545元
光大証券│增持│514.6元
野村│中性│517.4元->513.2元
高盛│沽售│400元
傑富瑞│持有│360.04元
券商│觀點
中金公司│業績符預期，新經濟股及互聯互通貢獻續提升
瑞銀│核心收益強勁
瑞信│投資收入遜預期，核心收益勝預期
花旗│不少新產品待推出，欠缺實質業務指引
摩根大通│結構性正面因素維持
光大証券│持續看好新股上市及互聯互通推進
野村│核心收入勝預期，盈利遜預期
高盛│盈利已見周期頂
傑富瑞│盈利大致符預期，但有更多下行風險
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