一文综合大行於汇控(00005.HK)公布季绩後最新评级、目标价及观点
汇丰控股(00005.HK)公布首季业绩远胜预期，今早股价曾上扬近3.2%一度高见47.45元，最新报47元升2.2%。瑞银指，汇控今年首季经调整除税前纯利高於集团原先指引47%，主要是收入理想、净信贷损失准备录得回拨因素所推动。
汇控昨(27日)中午公布首季列账基准除税前利润按年增长79%至57.79亿美元，远高於本网早前综合3间券商的预测上限36.93亿美元。纯利按年增长1.17倍至38.8亿美元，每股盈利19美仙。季内列账基准收入按年减少5.1%。盈利按年显着增长主要由於季内录得预期信贷损失拨回4.35亿美元。
集团首季普通股权一级资本比率15.9%，高於去年同期14.6%。期内净利息收益按年倒退14.4%至65.14亿美元，净利息收益率1.21%，较去年同期的1.54%收窄33点子。首季财富管理及个人银行经调整除税前利润按年增长1.78倍至19.14亿美元。汇控不拟派发季度息，并将於8月公布中期业绩时考虑是否派发股息。汇控行政总裁祈耀年表示今年为过渡期，将视乎次季业绩决定是否派中期息，并指今年没有回购计划，对集团储备持审慎态度。
【首季业绩远胜预期 高盛瑞银升目标价】
摩根士丹利发表报告表示，维持汇控「与大市同步」评级及46元目标价不变，但上调今年每股派息预测至24美仙，反应资本状况受惠盈利增长。该行认为，汇控首季录得预期信贷损失回拨，是反映尤其英国市场的全球经济展望改善，非利息收入亦因投资分配费用及强定的投资市场表现所带动，以及英国附属表现强劲。该行上调对汇控今年税後盈利预测23%，反映预期信贷损失减少；同时上调拨备前溢利2.7%，以反映成本预测轻微下调。该行亦上调对汇控全年实质每股纯利预测23%。
高盛表示，维持对汇控「买入」投资评级，目标价由57元上调至59元。该行认为汇控有多项潜在因素推动市场提升盈利预测，当中包括信贷成本减少，收入增长及成本固定。其中管理层预计今年信贷成本少於32亿美元，少於市场共识的44亿美元，足以上调对其全年核心除税前溢利预测最少8%。汇控管理层亦指零售及批发有累积信货需求，且预期今年余下时间信贷需求转强。该行料汇控净息差稳定及资产负债表增长5%，已意味收入胜预期。该行亦预期，汇控旗下欧美零售营运成本节省将超出指引。该行上调对汇控今年核心每股盈利预测16%。
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本网最新综合8间券商对其投资评级及目标价，1间券商上调投资评级，4间券商上调目标价。
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
高盛│买入│57元->59元
海通国际│中性->跑赢大市│45元->52元
美银证券│中性│49.63元->50.61元
瑞银│中性│47元->48.5元(430便士->450便士)
瑞信│中性│约47.4元(440便士)
花旗│中性│约46.32元(430便士)
摩根士丹利│与大市同步│46元
摩根大通│减持│43.1元(400便士)
券商│观点
高盛│将受惠经济复苏
海通国际│收入及信贷成本展望良好
美银证券│经济复苏带动首季业绩
瑞银│首季业绩受收入及信贷灭值推动，关注未来增长空间
瑞信│对信贷增长乐观
花旗│收入增长动力改善，承诺控制成本
摩根士丹利│盈利正常化较预期提早
摩根大通│非利息收入及减值回拨推动首季业绩，但净息差及资本充足率进展有限
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