《大行報告》交銀國際料美團(03690.HK)面臨40億至120億人幣罰款 潛在行政處分影響不大
就國家市場監督管理總局上日(26日)公布對美團(03690.HK)實施「二選一」等涉嫌壟斷行為立案調查一事,交銀國際發表報告,指參考阿里(09988.HK)案例,認為對美團的判定依據可能有幾點,即美團外賣市場份額;美團外賣對服務價格及商家流量是否有控制能力;資金及技術能力;商戶對平台依賴程度及是否依賴平台數據導致高昂的遷移成本;新進入者的門檻;以及,是否有「二選一」等行為證據。
報告料潛在行政處罰對美團業務運營影響不大,短期或影響股價;未來行業競爭仍體現在對用戶需求的滿足,對商戶營業額的帶動,及通過平台規模效應及技術能力優化配送成本。參考阿里案例(對應2019年境內GMV規模的4%,約182.28億元人民幣),股價去年11月至今跌幅25%,其中宣布立案審查
之日股價跌幅13%。假設美團可能面臨的行政處罰,對業務影響不大,罰款區間料介乎40億至120億元人民幣,相當於2018/19年外賣業務GMV的1%至3%,佔新一輪融資後淨現金比例3%至9%,對2021年虧損率影響2%至7%。
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