《大行報告》野村估美團(03690.HK)涉壟斷或遭內地罰款46億人幣 相當上年銷售額4%
就國家市場監督管理總局公布近日根據舉報依法對美團(03690.HK)實施「二選一」等涉嫌壟斷行為立案調查,野村發表報告表示,經過上次阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(BABA.US)的涉反壟斷事件後,已認為美團涉反壟斷的風險較高,但該行仍對上述消息感驚訝。
就國家市監局、中央網信辦及國家稅務總局早前召集34家互聯網公司參加會議,要求與會公司在接下來的30天內對其業務實踐進行徹底的自身檢查,並徹底糾正任何壟斷行為,從今次美團遭當局調查的消息表明,中國反對實施「二選一」等涉嫌壟斷行為立案調查,比該行最初的想法更加嚴格和嚴厲。
野村表示,就今次對調查事件對美團的潛在影響,如像阿里巴巴案件一樣,認為美團可能會在調查結束後因違反反壟斷法被國家市監局定罪;按壟斷法規定,罰款額為對上年度綜合營業額的1%-10%。如果罰款是按上一年銷售額的4%(如阿里巴巴的情況),美團將可能被罰款46億元人民幣(約7.06億美元),相當於美團的淨現金餘額為180億美元約4%,包括最近發行股票和可換股債券新籌集的100億美元,該行預計潛在罰款對美團的業務影響有限。該行維持美團的「買入」評級和目標價404港元。
該行認為,美團的強大市場地位和客戶忠誠度,使其餐廳供應與競爭對手的供應有所不同。考慮到潛在的監管風險因素,該行在行業中首選攜程(09961.HK)(TCOM.US)、網易(09999.HK)(NTES.US)、微博(WB.US)、阿里及騰訊(00700.HK)。從長線來看,該行也看好嗶哩嗶哩美股(BILI.US)、美團、京東美股(JD.US)和快手(01024.HK),因為這些公司在各自的垂直領域具有領先優勢,具有巨大的增長潛力。
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