《大行报告》野村估美团(03690.HK)涉垄断或遭内地罚款46亿人币 相当上年销售额4%
就国家市场监督管理总局公布近日根据举报依法对美团(03690.HK)实施「二选一」等涉嫌垄断行为立案调查,野村发表报告表示,经过上次阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(BABA.US)的涉反垄断事件後,已认为美团涉反垄断的风险较高,但该行仍对上述消息感惊讶。
就国家市监局、中央网信办及国家税务总局早前召集34家互联网公司参加会议,要求与会公司在接下来的30天内对其业务实践进行彻底的自身检查,并彻底纠正任何垄断行为,从今次美团遭当局调查的消息表明,中国反对实施「二选一」等涉嫌垄断行为立案调查,比该行最初的想法更加严格和严厉。
野村表示,就今次对调查事件对美团的潜在影响,如像阿里巴巴案件一样,认为美团可能会在调查结束後因违反反垄断法被国家市监局定罪;按垄断法规定,罚款额为对上年度综合营业额的1%-10%。如果罚款是按上一年销售额的4%(如阿里巴巴的情况),美团将可能被罚款46亿元人民币(约7.06亿美元),相当於美团的净现金余额为180亿美元约4%,包括最近发行股票和可换股债券新筹集的100亿美元,该行预计潜在罚款对美团的业务影响有限。该行维持美团的「买入」评级和目标价404港元。
该行认为,美团的强大市场地位和客户忠诚度,使其餐厅供应与竞争对手的供应有所不同。考虑到潜在的监管风险因素,该行在行业中首选携程(09961.HK)(TCOM.US)、网易(09999.HK)(NTES.US)、微博(WB.US)、阿里及腾讯(00700.HK)。从长线来看,该行也看好哔哩哔哩美股(BILI.US)、美团、京东美股(JD.US)和快手(01024.HK),因为这些公司在各自的垂直领域具有领先优势,具有巨大的增长潜力。
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