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《大行報告》瑞信:香港新加坡重啟「航空旅遊氣泡」向積極方向邁步 料國泰短期復蘇仍艱難
阿思達克 04-26 15:58
瑞信發表報告表示,就香港特區政府今日(26日)公布重啟與新加坡的「航空旅遊氣泡」計劃,在首航之前將密切監測兩地的新冠疫情發展,由於最近疫情再趨穩定,兩地政府均積極就此重新啟談判,該行指對重啟計劃並不令人感到意外,即使在最初階段的指定航班數量有限,該行認為顯示向積極方邁步。

該行指香港與新加坡的「航空旅遊氣泡」計劃採取更嚴格措施,第一是「疫苗氣泡」,按毋須隔離措施前往新加坡的香港居民,必須接種兩劑新冠疫苗後至少14天,於出發前的旅客在出發前14天需無前往新加坡或香港以外任何地方的旅行等。至於指定航班,鑑於原來安排保持不變,國泰航空(00293.HK)和新加坡航空最初將在首兩周每天運營一次航班(最多200個座位),若新冠疫情進一步受控,將在6月10日以後將逐步增加航班,而目前國泰每周運營兩班往返香港和新加坡的航班。

瑞信認為國泰短期復蘇艱難,因全球新冠疫情大流行情況仍然不穩定,香港最近在社區中出現涉變種病毒株的個案,該行估計若疫情一旦惡化,將可能令上述計劃中斷及停止。該行對近期客流量將保持較低水平:載客量一直相當於2019年水平的1%至2%左右,飛行容量約僅為2019年水平的5%至6%。在香港與新加坡之間的「航空旅遊氣泡」計劃可能逐漸提振國泰載客表現。該行維持對國泰「中性」評級及目標價7.2元。

該行估計恢復路徑仍然不確定,並且很大程度上取決於疫苗接種的情況,截至4月26日,香港已有83.4萬人接種了第一劑疫苗,43.3萬人接種了第二劑疫苗,覆蓋範圍大致分別佔人口的11%和6%(對群體免疫力為疫苗接種率70%)。

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