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惠譽:資產管理公司積極退出不合規通道業務致影子銀行規模跌幅超預期
阿思達克 04-23 17:59
評級機構惠譽發表報告指,監管改革有助於非銀金融機構發展,該行指中國的「窄口徑影子銀行」規模於去年再次下滑10%,對比GDP跌至接近2014年的水平。影子銀行規模跌幅超出惠譽先前預期,主要因為資產管理公司積極退出不合規的通道業務。

報告指,面對新冠肺炎疫情的經濟影響,政府本可能會放鬆對影子銀行的監管,但中國監管機構繼續收緊監管措施,以遏制不規範的融資活動。鑑於市場對信用狀況較弱實體的風險厭惡情緒加劇,且認列資產減值的意願增強,惠譽預期影子銀行系統的資產質量將進一步惡化。信托業投資者損失賠償準備金增長,致投資者損失賠償準備金與所有者權益比率自2019年第四季度末的4.6%升至2020年第四季度末的4.8%,且披露的資管產品違約案例增加,顯示影子銀行系統內資產質量持續承壓。

在中國信托業協會停止披露高風險項目金額前,信托公司的高風險項目、即欠款或違約項目在2020年第一季度末達到峰值,對信托公司總管理資產的佔比達到3%。監管措施有望促進公開透明的優質非銀信貸中介活動發展。監管機構打壓不規範融資活動的舉措令中國的影子銀行資產自2017年以來縮減約30%。監管更嚴、更透明且具備適當風險準備金的非銀融資活動,將有助於在傳統銀行系統之外建立更穩健的替代性融資渠道,以支持未來經濟增長和金融業發展。

該行預期,資質較弱的借款人獲取新融資或為即將到期債務再融資的難度較大,主要因為投資者面對資產減值風險和屢屢發生的信用違約事件,仍舊維持風險厭惡。資產管理公司將繼續退出不合規產品,以在2021年底資管新規規定的過渡期截止日期前達標,而2021年以後非銀信貸中介活動有望以更有序、更透明的方式成長。在更嚴格的監管框架下,該行業將實現更有節制的增長,並認真監控風險,以計提合理的風險準備金,維護金融系統穩定。

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