《季绩前瞻》券商料汇控(00005.HK)首季列帐基准税前利润升近4% 关注净息差及重组步伐
汇丰控股(00005.HK.HK)将於下周二(27日)公布今年首季度业绩，市场料受净利息收窄拖累下，令期内净利息收入下滑，但料环球银行及资本市场部门(GBM)及财富管理业务表现理想，可抵销相关影响。本网综合3间券商近日发表报告所作的预测，料汇控2021年首季列帐基准除税前利润料介乎26.49亿至36.93亿美元，较2020年首季32.29亿美元，按年下跌18%至上升14.4%。而美银证券引述市场同业对汇控今年首季列帐基准除税前利润预测为33.47亿美元(按年升3.7%)。
市场将关注汇控首季按季净息差及净利息收入表现，与及普通股权一级比率和经营开支等数据。该行亦指，纵使首季本港银行同业拆息下跌，但资产增长应为净利息收入带来轻微上行压力。此外，美银证券指近期有报道指汇控拟出售法国零售银行业务，若一旦落实会对损益表将造成较大损失，构成潜在影响未来业绩的因素。
【料净利息收入降 估财管业务理想】
高盛预期汇控今年首季列帐基准除税前利润按年跌18%至26.49亿美元，经调整除税前利润按年升37.7%至41.89亿美元，经调整收入按年跌4.7%至126.6亿美元。该行认为汇控首季业绩有两项业务上升因素，包括资本市场相关批发银行收益，与及零售银行财富管理业务，并料其首季有形股本回报率为3.3%。该行估计股票市场方面今年良好开端，或可反映在汇控旗下零售银行理财业务收入增长表现。
券商中最乐观为美银证券，该行预料汇控首季列帐基准除税前利润按年升14.4%至36.93亿美元，指预测较市场同业高出一成。该行指出，近期有报道指汇控拟出售法国零售银行业务，若落实会对损益表将造成较大损失，但该行对其预测未有反映相关因素，构成潜在影响未来业绩的因素。
该行指，汇控存款基础强劲及持有大量短期美债，使汇控对利率特别敏感，今年首季利率见底短期拖累汇控，但长期利率急速改善仍未在短期利率上反映。美银证券引述市场同业对汇控今年首季列帐基准除税前利润预测为33.47亿美元(按年升3.7%)、估计净利息收入录65.28亿美元按年跌14.2%、料总体收入126.17亿美元、料列账基准预期信贷损失及其他信贷减值准备按年跌64%至10.84亿美元。
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本网综合3间券商近日发表报告所作的预测，料汇控2021年首季列帐基准除税前利润料介乎26.49亿至36.93亿美元，较2020年首季32.29亿美元，按年下跌18%至上升14.4%。
券商│今年首季列帐基准除税前利润预测│按年变幅
美银证券│36.93亿美元│+14.4%
摩根士丹利│33.78亿美元│+4.6%
高盛│26.49亿美元│-18%
按汇控2020年首季列帐基准除税前利润32.29亿美元计算。
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