高盛料美次季经济增长见顶 或影响美股投资回报
高盛策略师Ben Snider牵头团队发表报告,预计美国今年第二季经济增长10.5%,为1978年以来最强增长季度,第三季及第四季经济增长则分别放缓至7.5%及6.5%,并於2022年第四季放缓至1.5%。报告指,相信美国经济增长会在未来一至两个月见顶,财政刺激及经济重启带来的动力将达至最高点,并开始消退。
报告警告,经济增长见顶可对投资回报带来重大影响。自1980年,标普500指数每月回报在经济增长放缓下为0.6%,仅及在经济增长加速时的1.2%的一半。报告指,经济增长减速一般会带来行业转换,周期性股份倾向在经济增长加速时跑出,但经济增长见顶及放缓时,较防守性行业股份表现较佳。
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