盈選報告 | 經濟景氣高點未到,關注光伏、互聯網廣告等板塊
市場策略
▍中銀國際徐高表示,疫情對全球經濟活動的幹擾仍然存在,全球寬鬆政策對全球總需求的推升作用還未充分顯現,中國經濟仍處在景氣上揚的過程中,此輪經濟景氣的高點還未到來。
▍國君固收覃漢:一季度經濟數據好壞參半、疫情帶來的低基數和結構性擾動下,市場對經濟基本面的預期開始有很大的分歧,開始窄幅波動,因此等待4月政治局會議對經濟和政策的定調。需要說明的是,每年4月中下旬,政治局會議會根據一季度經濟形勢來調整前一年12月中央經濟工作會議對全年的政策定調。
熱點機會
▍ 光伏板塊:
中信證券表示,光伏玻璃等環節價格下降帶動組件成本降低,預計硅料等環節價格觸及短期高點,產業鏈經過一段時間博弈後利好因素逐漸積累。國內開發商啓動招標,資源較好區域的項目逐漸開展,疊加組件出口保持旺盛,體現爲組件及相關環節開工率的提升,也符合我們對於需求邊際改善的追蹤和判斷。重點推薦:新特能源。
▍網絡音頻板塊:
中金表示,2020年,疫情催化下網絡音頻行業使用時長提升,智能配件快速普及和loT場景消費快速發展,騰訊音樂、網易雲音樂和字節跳動等巨頭入局,網絡音頻行業迎來了發展新機遇,用戶基數滲透擴張進入新階段,音頻差異化優勢或將逐步顯現,預計,用戶側和內容供給側雙向發力有望帶動市場進一步擴容。
▍ 互聯網廣告板塊:
中信證券表示,在流量結構上,Z世代用戶的價值正在持續體現,在流量見頂趨勢下,年輕用戶的爭奪成爲品牌廣告主的必爭之地,有望分到更多廣告預算分配。同時,隨着互聯網廣告行業整體價格提升,效果類廣告流量獲取成本提升快,以內容營銷爲主、突出品牌建設、爭奪私域流量的營銷模式逐步成爲新趨勢潮流,互聯網平臺將有望獲得更大收益。通過分析各平臺的財務狀況、產品矩陣、內容生態以及用戶結構,我們認爲騰訊綜合競爭力穩固,字節跳動、嗶哩嗶哩在互聯網廣告市場爭奪中佔據優勢;快手隨着產品結構、內容結構調整有望加速互聯網廣告收入;新興的小紅書、得物等垂類平臺有望快速增長。
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