《季績前瞻》券商料港交所(00388.HK)首季多賺69% 受惠交投暢旺及新經濟股上市
港交所(00388.HK.HK)將於下周三(28日)公布今年首季度業績，受惠於港股首季交投暢旺(平均每日成交金額按年升86%至2,244億元)、首季次公開招股集資金額為1,328億元按年大升8.22倍所帶動下，本網綜合5間券商預測，港交所2021年首季純利料介乎33.92億至40.29億元，較2020年首季22.62億元，按年上升50%至78.1%；中位數為38.2億元，按年增加68.9%。
綜合4間券商預測，港交所2021年首季收入介乎52.3億至56.91億元，較2020年首季40.55億元，按年上升29%至40.3%；中位數為54.1億元，按年增加33.4%。中金指近期關港交所地緣競爭問題再受關注，但從交易商核心商業模式的角度，認為其具業務壁壘及長期增長潛力，指南北向資金流入、新經濟港股上市、衍生產品豐均屬趨勢性改善。
【料純利增七成 受惠交投暢旺】
高盛預測港交所今年首季純利33.92億元按年升50%(按季升16%)，撇除投資收益的主要業務收入按年升29%至52.3億元，料交易費及交易系統使用費收入按年升35%(按季升42%)、估計結算及交收費收入按年升42%(按季升33%)、料聯交所上市費收入按年升3%(按季升7%)。該行預期港交所今年首季盈利為本股市周期或本年高峰，盈利將於今年餘下時間回落，這從成交下跌反映，且下跌趨勢在第二季持續。
中金本周一報告，預測港交所首季多賺69%至38.2億元，主要業務收入按年升35%至54.9億元。該行指出，港股現貨市場及滬、深港通南北向交易活躍帶動交易及結算收入高增長，是港交所業績提升的主要貢獻，港股通日均成交按年升1.81倍至608億元，佔本地比重14%，北上滬深股通日均成交按年升63%至1,268億元人民幣，佔A股比重7%，指港交所首季完成新股上市32家、融資額達1,328億港元(已達去年35%)。
中金預計港交所首季度交易及結算費收入按年升48%至42.1億元，貢獻整體收入70%。另一方面，港交所衍生品市場期貨交易回落，日均成交按年跌23%，個股期權日均成交則按年升54%。倫敦金屬交易所成交按年跌23%，但按季升5%。該行亦指，上市費增量對港交所貢獻並不明顯，港交所主要通過後續交易及結算收入間接增加盈利。
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本網綜合5間券商預測，港交所2021年首季純利料介乎33.92億至40.29億元，較2020年首季22.62億元，按年上升50%至78.1%；中位數為38.2億元，按年增加68.9%。
券商│2021年首季純利預測│按年變幅
摩根士丹利│40.29億元│+78.1%
摩根大通│38.42億元│+69.8%
中金│38.2億元│+68.9%
花旗│38億元│+68%
高盛│33.92億元│+50%
按港交所2020年首季純利22.62億元計算
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綜合4間券商預測，港交所2021年首季收入介乎52.3億至56.91億元，較2020年首季40.55億元，按年上升29%至40.3%；中位數為54.1億元，按年增加33.4%。
券商│2021年首季收入預測│按年變幅
摩根大通│56.9億元│+40.3%
中金│54.92億元│+35.4%
摩根士丹利│53.28億元│+31.4%
高盛│52.3億元│+29%
按港交所2020年首季收入40.55億元計算
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