《季绩前瞻》券商料港交所(00388.HK)首季多赚69% 受惠交投畅旺及新经济股上市
港交所(00388.HK.HK)将於下周三(28日)公布今年首季度业绩，受惠於港股首季交投畅旺(平均每日成交金额按年升86%至2,244亿元)、首季次公开招股集资金额为1,328亿元按年大升8.22倍所带动下，本网综合5间券商预测，港交所2021年首季纯利料介乎33.92亿至40.29亿元，较2020年首季22.62亿元，按年上升50%至78.1%；中位数为38.2亿元，按年增加68.9%。
综合4间券商预测，港交所2021年首季收入介乎52.3亿至56.91亿元，较2020年首季40.55亿元，按年上升29%至40.3%；中位数为54.1亿元，按年增加33.4%。中金指近期关港交所地缘竞争问题再受关注，但从交易商核心商业模式的角度，认为其具业务壁垒及长期增长潜力，指南北向资金流入、新经济港股上市、衍生产品丰均属趋势性改善。
【料纯利增七成 受惠交投畅旺】
高盛预测港交所今年首季纯利33.92亿元按年升50%(按季升16%)，撇除投资收益的主要业务收入按年升29%至52.3亿元，料交易费及交易系统使用费收入按年升35%(按季升42%)、估计结算及交收费收入按年升42%(按季升33%)、料联交所上市费收入按年升3%(按季升7%)。该行预期港交所今年首季盈利为本股市周期或本年高峰，盈利将於今年余下时间回落，这从成交下跌反映，且下跌趋势在第二季持续。
中金本周一报告，预测港交所首季多赚69%至38.2亿元，主要业务收入按年升35%至54.9亿元。该行指出，港股现货市场及沪、深港通南北向交易活跃带动交易及结算收入高增长，是港交所业绩提升的主要贡献，港股通日均成交按年升1.81倍至608亿元，占本地比重14%，北上沪深股通日均成交按年升63%至1,268亿元人民币，占A股比重7%，指港交所首季完成新股上市32家、融资额达1,328亿港元(已达去年35%)。
中金预计港交所首季度交易及结算费收入按年升48%至42.1亿元，贡献整体收入70%。另一方面，港交所衍生品市场期货交易回落，日均成交按年跌23%，个股期权日均成交则按年升54%。伦敦金属交易所成交按年跌23%，但按季升5%。该行亦指，上市费增量对港交所贡献并不明显，港交所主要通过後续交易及结算收入间接增加盈利。
-----------------------------------------
本网综合5间券商预测，港交所2021年首季纯利料介乎33.92亿至40.29亿元，较2020年首季22.62亿元，按年上升50%至78.1%；中位数为38.2亿元，按年增加68.9%。
券商│2021年首季纯利预测│按年变幅
摩根士丹利│40.29亿元│+78.1%
摩根大通│38.42亿元│+69.8%
中金│38.2亿元│+68.9%
花旗│38亿元│+68%
高盛│33.92亿元│+50%
按港交所2020年首季纯利22.62亿元计算
-----------------------------------------
综合4间券商预测，港交所2021年首季收入介乎52.3亿至56.91亿元，较2020年首季40.55亿元，按年上升29%至40.3%；中位数为54.1亿元，按年增加33.4%。
券商│2021年首季收入预测│按年变幅
摩根大通│56.9亿元│+40.3%
中金│54.92亿元│+35.4%
摩根士丹利│53.28亿元│+31.4%
高盛│52.3亿元│+29%
按港交所2020年首季收入40.55亿元计算
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
