野村:維持洛陽鉬業(3993.HK)買入評級 目標7港元
在祕魯總統選舉中暫時領先的候選人Pedro Castillo建議將銅礦及其他資源國有化,野村相信此舉將利好祕魯以外銅礦生產商,包括洛陽鉬業(3993.HK),因此維持其買入評級,目標7港元。
Castillo建議國家完全控制產生直接財富的三個重要部門,即採礦、天然氣和石油部門。他提出國有化金、銀、銅、鈾和鋰,以拯救國家策略性資源,將財富由富有的外資採礦公司轉移至貧若大眾身中。現時祕魯大部分礦山都由外資公司(如嘉能可)控制,相信國有化最可能的方法,就是效仿2018-19的剛果,提高出口關税或其他資源税。
野村估計,此舉將令銅價上漲,同時增加祕魯採礦公司的生產成本,對祕魯以外礦企有利,預計銅價每升10%,洛陽鉬業2021年每股盈利便會增加約16%。銅產是洛鉬最大盈利動力,料佔洛鉬今年EBITDA約42%。

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