高盛：內險首季新業務價值增長強勁 上調新華保險(1336.HK)等股評級
高盛發表報吿表示，認為首季強勁的新業務價值(VONB)增長將使投資者對內地人壽保險公司的增長前景充滿信心；自2020年以來投資收益率前景改善，推動估值重估。而大多數投資者同意首季度增長強勁，但保險公司的謹慎前景，令投資者對今年下半年的增長擔憂。鑑於保護範圍的滲透率較低與潛在市場的規模，越來越多的投資者憂慮需求持續疲軟。高盛將新華保險(1336.HK)評級由沽售上調至中性；財產險需求彈性，將人保(1339.HK)從中性升級至買入。
報吿指，除了對內險公司收入不確定性的擔憂外，還看到需求恢復疲軟的結構性原因，包括相對較高重大疾病（CI）保單的滲透率；由公共醫療體系提供基本醫療擴大覆蓋範圍。
該行指，在短期內，認為較高收入的地區的需求復甦更快。其中消費者可能已經購買重大疾病計劃，計劃解決其覆蓋範圍中的任何缺口。對於保險公司而言，這將需著重提高現有保單持有人的覆蓋面。為此相信需要高質量的代理人和全面的增值服務。高盛表示，涵蓋的股票中，鑑於通過內地及香港業務，其高端市場的覆蓋率，認為友邦保險(1299.HK)在中國內地的業務表現最強。中國人壽保險公司通常在大眾市場，受到需求不確定性的影響。在這些公司中，該行認為中國平安(2318.HK)的定位佳，由於其生產力更高的代理團隊和全面的增值服務產品。
另外，中國人壽(2628.HK)去年基數較高，投資者擔心與同業潛在的增長差異較大，但是由於大多數壽險公司錄得個位數的增長，因此認為差距可能會縮小，並且估值與其最接近的同行相比具有吸引力，尤其是中國太保(2601.HK)。
報吿指，鑑於2021財年預期的壽險保費收入下降，將首選壽險公司，而不是財產險公司；由於汽車保險改革，財產險承保利潤率上升，相信不確定性持續，對於相比人壽保險公司，對財產險和意外傷害險的需求非常彈性。
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