《大行報告》瑞銀:全球汽車業銷量無法翻倍 難再推高行業估值
瑞銀投資研究全球研究部中國汽車行業分析師鞏旻表示,中國汽車行業目前有三大趨勢,包括傳統車廠電動車大反擊、品牌掘起、科技巨頭參與。
他指,中國市場從產業活躍度、新鮮度、投放度等,均是最動態、活躍,是快速變化市場,相反歐美電動車,Tesla(TSLA.US)市佔率約80%,而歐洲則由傳統車企,大眾、雷諾等主導,好處是可以增加資本投放,加快行業發展,但同時未來的投資回報率邊際遞減,以及同業競爭亦會加劇。
他又指,科技巨頭的加入,有包括直接參與或技術合作,但預期產品需時研發,並需要至少3年才加入市場,短期內競爭不會太明顯。不過,新勢力的估值快速,但實際全球汽車業銷量、利潤率也沒法翻倍,故再推高行業估值的可能性較低,除非汽車業有不一樣商業變現機會,如賣軟件、或其他持續增長項目。
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