光伏：需求好轉的跡象有哪些？
本文來自格隆匯專欄：中信證券研究，作者：華鵬偉 林劼
光伏玻璃等環節價格下降帶動組件成本降低，預計硅料等環節價格觸及短期高點，產業鏈經過一段時間博弈後利好因素逐漸積累。國內開發商啟動招標，資源較好區域的項目逐漸開展，疊加組件出口保持旺盛，體現為組件及相關環節開工率的提升，也符合我們對於需求邊際改善的追蹤和判斷。
產業鏈博弈後利好因素逐漸積累
光伏產業鏈最初的博弈集中在組件和電站開發兩個環節。其中，組件企業尋求的是待交付訂單不虧損和擬投標訂單盈利，尤其是1-2個季度之前中標訂單，在產業鏈價格上漲後當季交付壓力較大。而電站開發商尋求的是已定標訂單不漲價和待招標項目保證收益率要求，需要鎖定更高的電站收益率和保證組件交貨。產業鏈博弈過程中，利好因素也逐漸累積，主要表現在3.2mm玻璃價格從最高點42元/平米下降到26元/平米，大幅緩解了組件端成本的壓力，其中單玻組件成本下降約0.05元/W，雙玻組件成本下降約0.09元/W。此外，光伏膠膜價格也出現下降，預計硅料價格在超過140元/公斤後觸及短期高點。
海外需求旺盛，國內需求或有邊際改善
在產業鏈博弈的過程中，需求端也在發生積極的變化。根據SOLARZOOM的數據，2021年1-2月份光伏組件出貨約12.9GW，同比增長約77%，海外的光伏需求保持增長趨勢，且由於海外大部分國家基礎電價較高，對光伏組件價格的上漲接受度較高。從終端需求看，資源較好的地區、去年結轉的競價項目和户用分佈式光伏具備了啟動的可能性，從而帶動國內需求的邊際改善，組件的漲價在一定程度上為國內客户所接受。
預計組件及相關環節開工率提升
隨着博弈的推進和需求的邊際改善，在終端客户接受組件一定程度漲價的情況下，可以看到組件及相關環節的開工率也有所提升，預計將由最低60%提升至約80%，其中龍頭企業的開工率更高，已經從膠膜等環節的開工率提升上得到驗證。另外，在終端需求保持改善的情況下，預計全年產業鏈的價格可能都會維持在比較高的位置。而隨着原材料短缺和產業鏈價格的上漲，龍頭企業通過自身的品牌、渠道等競爭優勢，實現市場份額的擴張和中長期市場競爭力的塑造。
風險因素
產業鏈價格繼續上行影響終端需求，運費等居高不下影響海外發貨和企業盈利，利率上行影響終端安裝的積極性。
投資策略
預計隨着終端需求的好轉，組件企業的出貨量也將有所提升，光伏一體化龍頭企業值得重點關注，重點推薦隆基股份、晶澳科技；預計硅料價格將維持強勢，重點推薦通威股份、新特能源；價格調整和需求回升後，基於產品結構優化提升和新材料放量的邏輯，重點推薦福斯特。
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