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《大行報告》瑞銀首予綠城管理控股(09979.HK)「買入」評級 目標價5.1元
阿思達克 04-21 09:44
瑞銀發表的研究報告,首予綠城管理控股(09979.HK)「買入」評級,目標價5.1元,該行指出對公司有正面看法,認為在「三道紅線」新規加上中央土地供應等,開發商會在輕資產、逆週期的項目管理模式下繼續增長,相信投資者忽略了滲透能力的潛力,同時亦過份擔心以項目為基礎的收入,該行估計到2030年項目管理收入將為1,000億元人民幣(下同),2020-30年的年複合增長將為13%,預期公司到2025年市場份額將升至30%。

該行比對了地產子行業的各種業務模式,並分析開發商及政府在聘用項目管理人時的誘因,認為2019年在已發展經濟體的項目管理滲透率為20-30%,而中國僅4%左右,估計受惠滲透率提升,項目管理收入於2020-30年的年複合增長將為13%。

該行相信公司可維持市場領導地位,市場份額將由2019年的22%升至2025年的30%,主要因為現時在管面積已鎖定約四年的收入,而商業項目質素較高,相對鄰近住宅定價可有40%的溢價,加上公司具品牌優勢,同時有豐富經驗及承辦商和供應商網絡,並有參與政府項目,估計2020-22年商業及政府項目收入的年複合增長將為30%及44%,而作為「現金牛」,估計公司派息比率可維持在65%的高位。(el/a) ~

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