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《大行報告》高盛料內地醫藥研發外包行業盈利展望穩固 首選藥明系兩企
阿思達克 04-20 16:13
高盛發表研究報告,指內地CDMO/CRO(藥物開發和生產合同定製/合同研究組織)企業去年在兩大壓測中保持韌性,即疫情帶來的供應干擾,及中美緊張下外包價值鏈分離風險。內地CDMO/CRO去年首季及去年上半年表現較弱,而受惠於新客戶增長加快、交叉銷售及外包增加、內地客戶增長加快,去年第二至第四季復甦進展令人鼓舞。

報告稱,行業龍頭併購或需要調節,例如將眼光由美國移向歐盟等,內生增長的核心動力持續。該行稱,疫情帶來的一次性作用似在減褪,不過一些好處及壞處或持續更久,如新冠疫苗/療法的CDMO/CMO收入對藥明生物(02269.HK)仍屬機遇,而臨床CRO或需更長時間復甦。

高盛指內地康健護理行業今明兩年盈利強勁增長清晰,重申對CDMO/CRO企業的偏好,特別是在近期市況波動時,主因全球生物藥企研發開支穩定增長,及由強勁生科風投/IPO資金推動。踏入今年,生科風投及IPO融資同創新高。另研發外包需求持續,外包服務定價穩定增加亦有利CDMO/CRO企業,料在強勁資金投入下,行業今明兩年盈利展望穩固。

報告以藥明康德(02359.HK)及藥明生物為首選,受惠市場定位、領先技術及強勁盈利往績。該行同予康龍化成(03759.HK)、泰格醫藥(03347.HK)及方達控股(01521.HK)「買入」評級,因為看好整個板塊;但料臨床CRO復甦或呈漸進,方達控股對新產能的投入或壓抑今明兩年利潤率。詳細評級及目標價見另表。

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