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盈選報告 | 市場調整接近尾聲,關注銅、汽車等板塊

市場策略

▍ 中金公司首席策略師、董事總經理王漢鋒表示,

給定當前的估值水平、流動性狀態,重申港股相對好於A股的觀點。經過前期的回調,一些中長期看好的方向,包括消費、醫藥、科技及互聯網等吸引力也在逐步增強。

市場調整接近尾聲,進入磨底期,保持耐心,關注局部熱點。

▍ 深圳東方港灣董事長、金牛基金經理但斌表示:

“目前結構性的估值還不算便宜,還沒有非常強的吸引力。我們的感覺是如果再跌差不多5%-10%,結構性的估值會到歷史均值的水平,可能會更安全。”

“專業機構都知道,週期性行業只能買個低點賣個高點,如果你不賣,萬一套住就很難。所以就是比大家誰跑得快,這類的公司有回撤,我覺得是非常正常的,因爲它很難持續。”

“震盪市最忌諱的就是不斷地去買賣,否則的話老被打臉。你剛賣完他就漲,剛買又給跌下來。”

熱點機會

銅板塊:

高盛在近日報告表示,銅是新的原油,看多銅價至15000美元。對於政府支持的全球綠色轉型來說,銅是不可或缺的,以至於所需的供應註定銅價將要飆升。銅價上漲才能激勵出足夠的供應來解決潛在的短缺問題,否則將有可能在2025-2030年出現長期稀缺定價。

汽車板塊:

中信證券表示,在智能化、電動化、個性化的浪潮中,智能化、電動化更多依賴於供應鏈,而“個性化”則能幫助整車廠跳出“同質化”競爭,重新獲得定價權,提高整車端盈利能力。同時,軟件付費模式的出現,讓整車廠從賺“新車製造的錢”,轉變爲賺“保有量軟件訂閱”的錢,估值方法正在重構。

重點推薦:長城汽車(女性市場+越野細分領域);比亞迪(硬核電動+中式豪華);吉利汽車(領克+極氪打造年輕化潮牌);長安汽車(Uni系列展現定位能力)。建議關注:蔚來、理想、小鵬三家造車新勢力(科技、服務的消費新體驗+用戶社區)。

▍ 騰訊泛文娛產業鏈:

中信證券表示,騰訊泛文娛產業鏈迎來新一輪組織調整,騰訊大文娛完成初步整合,並統一向騰訊COO任宇昕彙報。TME與閱文、騰訊視頻、微視、QQ、遊戲等將打造更多業務閉環,提升業務協作效率和商業化能力,並拓寬泛文娛產業競爭壁壘。

騰訊大文娛發展有望進入增長快車道,我們持續推薦繼續推薦騰訊泛文娛產業鏈公司騰訊控股、閱文、TME,並建議持續關注貓眼娛樂、鬥魚和虎牙。

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