《大行報告》摩通首予東方海外(00316.HK)「增持」評級 升中遠海控(01919.HK)目標價至16元
摩根大通發表研究報告指,在投資者鎖定利潤及板塊輪轉衝擊市場下,該行覆蓋的亞洲航運股本年至今升勢持續,平均升約40%,相較MSCI亞洲指數同期升4%。板塊強勢受中遠海控(01919.HK)及台灣長榮海運首季表現遠勝預期所推動,另蘇伊士運河堵塞的後遺症持續干擾全球供應鏈,運費恢復升勢。
該行料今年次季及第三季,需求持續擴張,受惠於美國經濟復甦及積壓庫存補貨活動。該行首予東方海外國際(00316.HK)「增持」評級,目標價183元;中遠海控目標價由14元上調至16元,評級「增持」。
摩通稱,在較平時繁忙的春節後,在供需關係緊張下,過去三周運費恢復強勢。疫情對貨運合約形式帶來前所未有轉變,客戶趨於接受鎖定更大運力及更長時間(兩至三年)。該行料混合費率有更大上升空間,抵銷今年下半年運費潛在放緩有餘;該行認為中遠海控、東方海外今年混合費率上升20%至25%的預測有上行風險。
另外,短期行業基本面仍有利,而且具高可見度,該行相信板塊升浪未完,在重啟步伐緩慢下,現時供應鏈緊張維持時間或長過預期,而補貨活動及全球經濟反彈料為今明兩年航運量增長帶來上行空間。
摩通補充,傳統而言,亞洲航運股以市帳率估值,但去年航運股股本回報率(ROE)大升,東方海外及中遠海控分別達17%及25%,料今明兩年進一步擴張,認為以盈利為基礎的估值方式分析較有意義,並指中遠海控、東方海外及長榮海運現估值僅相當於今財年預測企業價值對EBITDA比率約3至5倍屬吸引。
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