《大行报告》摩通首予东方海外(00316.HK)「增持」评级 升中远海控(01919.HK)目标价至16元
摩根大通发表研究报告指,在投资者锁定利润及板块轮转冲击市场下,该行覆盖的亚洲航运股本年至今升势持续,平均升约40%,相较MSCI亚洲指数同期升4%。板块强势受中远海控(01919.HK)及台湾长荣海运首季表现远胜预期所推动,另苏伊士运河堵塞的後遗症持续干扰全球供应链,运费恢复升势。
该行料今年次季及第三季,需求持续扩张,受惠於美国经济复苏及积压库存补货活动。该行首予东方海外国际(00316.HK)「增持」评级,目标价183元;中远海控目标价由14元上调至16元,评级「增持」。
摩通称,在较平时繁忙的春节後,在供需关系紧张下,过去三周运费恢复强势。疫情对货运合约形式带来前所未有转变,客户趋於接受锁定更大运力及更长时间(两至三年)。该行料混合费率有更大上升空间,抵销今年下半年运费潜在放缓有余;该行认为中远海控、东方海外今年混合费率上升20%至25%的预测有上行风险。
另外,短期行业基本面仍有利,而且具高可见度,该行相信板块升浪未完,在重启步伐缓慢下,现时供应链紧张维持时间或长过预期,而补货活动及全球经济反弹料为今明两年航运量增长带来上行空间。
摩通补充,传统而言,亚洲航运股以市帐率估值,但去年航运股股本回报率(ROE)大升,东方海外及中远海控分别达17%及25%,料今明两年进一步扩张,认为以盈利为基础的估值方式分析较有意义,并指中远海控、东方海外及长荣海运现估值仅相当於今财年预测企业价值对EBITDA比率约3至5倍属吸引。
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