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物業商管:受益於後疫情復甦,規模和差異化發展
格隆匯 04-20 10:26

本文來自格隆匯專欄:中信證券研究 ,作者:陳聰 、張全國 、李金哲

2020年,主流商管公司克服困難,經營穩步增長。2021年商管賽道整體供求基本穩定,但結構分化對商管運營提出更高要求。

商業管理和運營逐漸成為廣義空間服務中特殊的子行業。

和傳統物業管理公司相比,商管公司收入穩定性弱,彈性強。商管公司一般對項目前期介入更深,品牌開始大規模第三方拓展的歷史節點卻晚於物業管理。

整體供求基本穩定,結構分化對商管運營提出更高要求。

2020年,受疫情影響全國新開業購物中心數量明顯下降,但到年底開業速度已經恢復正常。2020年下半年,一二線購物中心的空置率已達11%以上,疫情對整個行業的影響客觀存在。中期而言,電商滲透率持續大幅提升的階段已經過去,各類線下消費和體驗需求基本穩定。但購物中心存在結構性供給問題,包括低線城市供給過多,小型設施供給過多,部分城市階段性供給高潮等。這種供求形勢意味着商業運營管理的重要性較高,好運營才能發掘土地的價值。

主流商管公司克服困難,經營穩步增長。

根據粗略統計,六家頭部商管公司(包括上市公司中的商管部分)2020年GMV同比增長約10%,客流同比增長約7%。推動GMV和客流增長的主要因素是新店開業,但一些公司的運營效率也保持良好。即便在疫情衝擊下,且考慮新開店,我們測算華潤萬象的單店GMV都沒有明顯下降跡象,租金收入則同比增長7.9%,如剔除期內免租影響,較去年同期增長16.2%。

商管品牌持續分化,預計強者恆強,規模和定位成為主要護城河。

2020年,不同區域的商管公司運營成績不同,北方區域受疫情管控影響較明顯,高檔業態表現明顯好於時尚業態。展望未來,規模化和差異化逐漸成為企業護城河,商管公司可能走向強者恆強。規模除了在中後台費用分攤和多種經營優勢,更意味着品牌更受零售租户青睞。差異化定位,尤其是在奢侈品領域的差異化定位,則可能推動其管理項目租金和NOI持續增長。更進一步,包括商管和住宅物業管理行業的用户乃至底層數據可能打通,混業化可能是大空間服務行業的最終出路。

風險提示:

部分商場運營效率較低,部分商管品牌逐漸空心化的風險。

關注商管行業,推薦華潤萬象:

華潤萬象是為數不多商管及住宅物業管理混業經營的上市公司,具備全國領先的物業管理及商業運營品牌,業績持續性及穩定增長確定性較一般物業公司更強,極具稀缺性。公司正處於明確的高速增長期,業務享受規模擴張和消費升級的雙重紅利,我們繼續看好華潤萬象,維持“買入”投資評級。

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