野村：中資行盈利恢復前景正面 看好招商銀行(3968.HK)
野村發表研究報吿指，中資銀行的收入將隨着資產資量提高而恢復。該行對中資銀行維持正面態度，預期今年招商銀行(3968.HK)及平安銀行(000001.SZ)的盈利增長將恢復雙位數，而大型銀行的恢復將達到高個位數。該利長遠看好招行，並予買入評級，目標價升至71.91港元，因為它擁有輕量級的資本模式，擁有強大的財富管理專營權，並在風險管理方面擁有良好的往績。該行又認為，工商銀行(1398.HK)、建行(0939.HK)和農行(1288.HK)的吸引力在於估值不高及股息率吸引，評級均為買入，目標價分別上調至6.38港元、7.74港元、3.58港元。
野村指，儘管第一季度面對抵押貸款重新定價壓力，但由於強勁的信貸需求，淨利息收益率(NIM)跌幅收窄。由於持續的經濟復甦，信貸需求仍然強勁。該行認為這種趨勢或會支持銀行定價。不過，由於同業拆借利率正常化，以及高成本負債（例如結構性存款）再減空間有限，故負債成本進一步下下降的幅度受制。
野村上調了建行及農行的今明兩年NIM預測，現時估計今年工行、建行及農行的NIM下跌2個基點。野村又降低招行今明兩年NIM預測，以反映較低的管理層指導，預期今年招行NIM收窄1個基點，該行維持平安銀行NIM預測為持平。
野村表示，隨着去年撥備按年增加13-19％，預期銀行業將在今年面臨緩解的信貸成本壓力。但是基於潛在的融資環境緊張，及新資產管理規定的截止日期臨近，該行認為，準備金壓力或會持續到年底。不過，該行相信，小型企業的貸款支援政策將有助於減輕大銀行的債務負擔。
野村預計，未來三年，招行和平安銀行的手續費和佣金收入將按年平均增長13％，相比之下，工銀亞洲建行和農行則按年分別增長6％、5％和3％。該行估計，大型國有企業銀行（工行、建行、農行）的總貸款增速將從去年的11-13.5％放緩至今年的9-10.5％，而招行和平安銀行的貸款按年分別增長11.5％和14.5％。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
