瑞银汪涛:内地经济按年增速或逐季回落 维持全年增长9%预测
内地公布今年首季经济按年增长18.3%,增速创纪录新高。瑞银投资银行亚洲经济研究主管暨首席中国经济学家汪涛表示,由於去年同期基数很低,第一季实际GDP按年增速大幅反弹,而按季增长势头如期放缓至2%左右(折年率),部分是因为政府出台就地过年等经济活动限制。第一季出口按年增速反弹至49%,该行认为侧面反映了全球需求回暖、中国供应链韧性较强,而房地产和基建投资也较为稳健。更值得注意的是,第一季社会消费品零售按年增长34%、较2019年第一季水准增长8.5%,表明消费复苏有所提速。
她指,预计未来国内经济活动和支出将按季提速,第二季GDP按季折年增长率有望加快至7%、下半年保持在6%以上,不过随着基数效应消退,按年增速可能逐季回落。
汪涛认为,需关注的风险在於违约增加和信用市场波动,对经济而言,最大的不确定性依然是疫情的演变和影响,包括疫苗的有效性和接种速度。她重申,瑞银维持全年GDP增长9%的预测不变。(ek/k)
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