植耀輝: 港股反覆下跌107點 快手(01024.HK)趁反彈宜減持
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，港股昨日(15日)未能延續周三上升403點之勢頭，個別新舊經濟股皆見沽壓，但午後隨著A股跌幅收窄，加上騰訊(00700.HK)及美團(03690.HK)等股價尾市反覆靠穩，令恆指最終僅下跌107點，收報28,793點，科技指數亦跌1%，收報8,142點。不過全日成交再有所縮減，僅得1,245億元。由於A股走勢未見起色，加上新經濟股份短期表現仍不明朗，相信恆指短期難有突破，而成交量縮減亦意味投資者傾向現階段保留實力，所以港股短期或會繼續於28,000至29,000點上落。
個股方面，則一定要談談快手(01024.HK)，其股價昨日急挫7.8%，低見235元，包括快手在內之23間互聯網平台企業簽署《依法合規經營承諾》，承諾不與其他經營者達成壟斷協議，以保障消費者權益。雖然簽署公司除快手外還包括騰訊、阿里(09988.HK)旗下盒馬鮮生以及嗶哩嗶哩(09626.HK)等，但其餘股份跌幅不算大。筆者傾向是與快手估值過高有一定關係，事實上經歷近期股價下跌後，其市值仍達高9,981億港元，而且股價走弱亦已維持一段日子，加上重大支持249元亦告失守，意味短期如未能重上此水平，後市情況仍不樂觀，因此並不建議投資者現水階段博反彈；仍持貨之投資者亦宜先做好兩手準備，如股價短期仍未能有所反彈，亦宜先行忍痛減磅止蝕。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，持有騰訊股份)
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美股再破頂 留意中國第一季GDP表現
耀才研究部稱，隔晚(15日)美股三大指數全線向上，市場繼續留意大型銀行業績，花旗銀行(C.US)和美國銀行(BAC.US)等業績理想，道指盤中再破頂高見34,068點，標指破頂高見4,173點，納指距離新高只差125點。同時美國經濟數據理想，3月零售銷售增長9.8%優於預期的5.9%；首次申領失業救濟金人數減少19.3萬，報57.6萬，為2020年3月中以來最低，同樣勝預期，加上美國10年期債息盤中回落至1.53厘水平，同樣有利股市氣氛。港股ADR變動不大，相信主要影響因素仍是A股表現，上証綜合指數一直於3,400點關口爭持，整個反覆偏軟格局仍未有改善，唯幸中港兩地昨日成交偏低，未有太大指標性，中國今日(16日)將公佈第一季GDP數據，市場估計於低基數效應下按年升幅達18.5%，留意數據能否為市場沖喜。
從技術上看，恆指於10天及20天線爭持，大市成交縮減至只得約1,300億元，短線較關鍵的阻力位則在50天線29,200點水平，一日恆指仍處於28,200點至29,200點水平左近，後市仍欠缺明確方向。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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