《大行报告》高盛料濠赌股短期波动 降今年赌收预测 全线调整目标价
高盛发表报告表示,在过去两至三个月中,该行一直建议投资者在「重新开放」的主题上收集澳门博彩股,而澳门政府最近几周陆逐放宽了政策,如从3月3日起取消对进入赌场的核酸测试等,濠赌股股价亦累升20%,估值相当预测2022年企业价值对EBITDA由10倍升至11.8倍,而市场对於濠赌股EBITDA的修订相对稳定。
该行指,虽然对澳门博彩股保持建设性看法,料未来12个月有进一步上涨空间,但该行估计濠赌股短期会呈波动,因料如美高梅中国(02282.HK)及银河娱乐(00027.HK)或因人民币汇价走弱及一次性因素(奖励支出)令首季业绩或逊预期,而香港通关较原预期为长,亦潜在令市场同业下调对澳门博彩行业的预测。
该行指濠赌股呈调整将提供吸纳机会,包括澳博控股(00880.HK)、银河娱乐、金沙中国(01928.HK)及新濠博亚(MLCO.US)。
高盛表示,为反映贵宾厅复苏较原预期疲弱及香港通关较原预期为长,决定下调对澳门今年博彩收入预测至较2019年水平低43%(此前预测为较2019年水平低28%),并估计澳门今年贵宾厅及中场赌收各下跌54%及35%,该行料澳门2022年赌收达350亿美元,略低於2019年361亿美元水平。
高盛亦略为调整对濠赌股目标价,将金沙中国目标价由41.4元降至41.2元,维持「买入」评级;上调银娱目标价由80.3元升至80.5元,维持「买入」评级;该行微降对澳博控股目标价由12.9元降至12.8元,维持「买入」(列入「确信买入」名单)评级。
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