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《大行报告》高盛首予农夫山泉(09633.HK)「买入」评级 目标价48元
阿思达克 04-15 12:11
高盛发表报告,首予农夫山泉(09633.HK)「买入」投资评级,及目标价48元,此相当预测2026年预测市盈率40倍,该行预计农夫山泉将继续在内地包装水的核心领域中提升市场份额,并进入中国规模1,500亿美元的软性饮品(无酒精饮料)市场的其他部分,以发挥品牌,产品创新和分销方面的主要优势。

该行认为,农夫山泉有三个主要的增长驱动因素可支持该行对其2020年至2025年销售复合增长率17%、同期每股盈利复合年增长率20%预测,并估计农夫山泉在内地水饮料市场份额,可从2019年的21%提升到2025年近30%。

高盛指,农夫山泉藉着与其他饮料进行交叉销售以细分市场,如茶和功能性饮料,以及进入内地偏远城市,由於其较高的利润率预期,该行料农夫山於2022至2023年每股收益预测较证券同业预期高出0%至3%。由於利润率和估值问题(农夫山泉目前估值相当於预测2022年市盈率50倍),高盛指该股年初至今已修正了30%,但预计该公司强大的定价能力和规模扩张,将部分抵消成本上升带来的短期利润率不利影响。

该行料农夫山泉於2021年至2023年各年每股盈测各0.55、0.65及0.79元人民币。

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