盈選報告 | 港股二季度蓄勢待發，關注鋼鐵、啤酒板塊
市場策略
▍ 興業證券全球首席分析師張憶東表示，中國股市二季度蓄勢待發，4月份和5月份仍有波折，二季度A股和港股有望完成從3月開始的“黃金坑”底部區域，並開始佈局新一輪結構性行情。投資主線一：港股深度價值型核心資產，防守反擊，業績和估值雙擊，看好金融、地產等。主線二：成長型核心資產進入左側佈局期，港股新經濟已具合適的性價比，但更好的佈局時機或在二季度後期。互聯網、消費、先進製造業等爲代表的成長領域的核心資產，今年的機會是“估值跌出來”加上“業績漲出來”的。當下，成長領域的核心資產對標美股不貴且成長性更強，左側佈局的機會來臨，可以在物管、醫藥、TMT、高教、食品飲料、博彩、品牌服裝等細分領域、根據成長性和估值的匹配度來精選個股。
▍ 摩根大通表示，價值股預計將在很長一段內跑贏成長股。基本面正在改善，有刺激法案和支持性的貨幣政策，現在VIX恐慌指數也在一點點下降，這些都有助於資金流。雖然美債收益率上升令天平朝價值資產略微傾斜，但在10年期收益率觸及2.50％之前，它不太可能對股市構成負面影響。
熱點機會
▍ 鋼鐵板塊：
中信證券表示，繼續維持2021年是中國鋼鐵行業大年的判斷。需求端在整體宏觀經濟復甦的驅動下不斷恢復，製造業海內外共振上行主線明晰。供應端，碳中和碳達峯的大背景約束有望帶來產量超預期收縮，我們判斷鋼鐵行業將出現明顯供需缺口，行業利潤中樞將顯著提升。
▍ 啤酒板塊：
富瑞表示，受餐飲和夜生活等渠道進一步復甦帶動，加上去年首季的低基數影響，今年首季中國啤酒業正經歷大幅增長，但現時原材料價格上升爲行業的主要壓力，相信相關公司或於暑假高峯期前在全國範圍上調價格。維持青島啤酒(00168)爲行業首選股，目標價96港元評級“買入”，予百威亞太(01876)目標價29港元，評級“買入”。
中信證券表示，2021Q1，啤酒行業銷量基本恢復至疫情前水平。隨着包材及大麥成本明顯上行，我們預計二季度各家公司盈利彈性釋放承壓，龍頭公司望考慮提價可能。首推華潤啤酒、重慶啤酒，推薦青島啤酒、百威亞太。
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