外資逆向買入千億白馬
本文來自格隆匯專欄：海榕財富風險投研，作者：海榕君
國內最好的化粧品公司有兩個：上海機場和中國中免 ，因為新冠疫情 上海機場讓了一部分利潤給中國中免，上海機場未來5年的利潤封死了 ，所以不能享受 免税業務的成長， 現在中國中免成為國內最好的化粧品公司 。今天下午1點開盤後中國中免 股價突然跌停 ，成交了65億人民幣 ，在盤後跟蹤的龍虎榜 ，外資通過滬港通和中國國際金融大約逆向買入中國中免6.3億人民幣。
昨日中午跌停的時候，市場有下面幾個傳言：①網傳一季報利潤不及預期；②海南香化開始價格戰，海發和海旅主動發起價格戰（考核不以利潤為導向）；③海關總署對“套代購”行為整治。
業績方面，盤後中國中免披露了一季報 ：2021年第一季度，公司實現營業總收入181.34億元，較上年同期增長127.48%，實現營業利潤44.58億元，較上年同期增加47.76億元，實現利潤總額44.62億元，較上年同期增加47.90億元，實現歸屬於上市公司股東的淨利潤28.49億元，較上年同期增加28.71億元。
我查了一下 ，賣方分析師對 中免的2021年一季度的預期淨利潤是 28.74億， 財報披露略微低於市場預期 ，但是非常接近，和順豐控股不一樣。
競爭格局方面，三亞確實陸續 開通兩家大型市內免税店，但是中國中免海棠灣購物廣場的客流量不減，內部去調研發現排隊太恐怖，不缺客户 ，未來3年內沒有哪家公司可以挑戰中免。
引起中國中免下跌最主要還是此前説的原因 ： 3月份社融和M2均低於預期，流動性拐點基本確定，實際利率估計會逐步回升，緩解大宗帶來的通脹壓力。利率上升，dcf分母變大，導致市場的估值中樞下移，現在 對於優秀的成長股來説 ，比拼的業績增長和估值中樞下移誰能佔上風，估值特別高的公司未來下移風險還是很大。
對於中國中免這家公司，昨日是殺估值 ，基本沒有殺業績 ，更沒有殺邏輯 ，2021年預期有112億利潤 ，給30-40倍PE算 ，預期合理市值在 3360億-4480億，這個估值波動依賴整體市場行情的走勢 。
再説説4月13日的市場：
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