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渣打料內地下半年經濟增速將會正常化
阿思達克 04-13 15:37
渣打大中華區高級經濟師劉健恆預期,下半年內地經濟增速將會正常化,因去年內地經濟已從環球經濟率先反彈,相信財政刺激經濟措施及貨幣政策未必如以往寬鬆,第三季和第四季經濟將較現時快速增長速度有所放緩,屬合理情況。

他表示,內地相比起一兩年前,對容許資金流出方面限制寬鬆許多,並推出不少涉及放寬雙向或南向資金措施,包括跨境理財通及債券南向通,反映政策面未因為近期人民幣及美元波動而需要大轉向,只要人民幣基本面保持穩健,內地將有秩序逐步開放資本市場,因此不太擔心資金流出渠道或有關政策會出現大轉變。

人民幣走勢方面,他預料年中有可能升至約6.3兌一美元,年底回落至6.4至6.5兌一美元水平。

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