渣打料内地下半年经济增速将会正常化
渣打大中华区高级经济师刘健恒预期,下半年内地经济增速将会正常化,因去年内地经济已从环球经济率先反弹,相信财政刺激经济措施及货币政策未必如以往宽松,第三季和第四季经济将较现时快速增长速度有所放缓,属合理情况。
他表示,内地相比起一两年前,对容许资金流出方面限制宽松许多,并推出不少涉及放宽双向或南向资金措施,包括跨境理财通及债券南向通,反映政策面未因为近期人民币及美元波动而需要大转向,只要人民币基本面保持稳健,内地将有秩序逐步开放资本市场,因此不太担心资金流出渠道或有关政策会出现大转变。
人民币走势方面,他预料年中有可能升至约6.3兑一美元,年底回落至6.4至6.5兑一美元水平。
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